Benjamin Cowen prediction accuracy
B
last 12 mo
38%
38%
all time, own deadlines (16)
37%
all resolved (27)
48%
30-day direction (27)
38
calls logged
11
open right now
0
flips (30d)
Is Benjamin Cowen accurate?
Benjamin Cowen is graded B on Oracle Check (oraclecheck.com), above typical, not yet conclusive: in the last 12 months, 6 of 16 crypto price calls where they set the deadline themselves hit (38%), against a typical 21% across all tracked channels, which ranks #12 of 64 graded channels. All time, 6 of 16 such calls hit (38%); they were made between February 2026 and September 2026. Counting every resolved call, including ones without a stated deadline, the hit rate is 37% (27 calls). 30 days after a directional call, the price had moved the way they said 48% of the time (27 calls). The grade summarizes the record; it is not a forecast.
Current stance
▲ TOTAL → $10T
Nov 2 · open
▼ BTC
Nov 1 · open
▲ ETH
Aug 24 · open
Is Benjamin Cowen accurate?
Grade B, above typical, not yet conclusive: in the last 12 months, 6 of 16 predictions where Benjamin Cowen named the deadline themselves came true by that deadline, against a typical 21% for all channels. All time, 6 of 16 calls with their own deadline hit. Calls with a price target: 3 of 5 reached it. Calls without one are judged on direction (a move of 3% or more the stated way, or staying inside a 5% band for a sideways call): 3 of 11 hit. A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 48% of the time (27 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
OPEN
TOTAL ▲ → $10T
“obviously over the macro scale of the long term i do think crypto is going to go to 10 trillion plus or minus a few trillion”
“Worst case scenario is the balance price. In my opinion, that's the tail risk. Right. The tail risk for Bitcoin is that it goes to the balance price. And that's always been the case. Right. I mean, that's where every prior bear market has eventually terminated.”
“What if Bitcoin drops to the range low against gold where the ratio is 10, and if gold's at 3800, then that would put Bitcoin right around that 40k mark.”
OPEN
TOTAL ▼
“Crypto might then bounce one more time into the midterms and then drop after midterms.”
“if if we're losing 83k here then the next obvious stop is just the bullmark sport band right and and that's going to be like the low to mid 70s”
“it's possible that bitcoin stalls out at the station because the s&p has a correction just as bitcoin wanted to break out”
“ultimately i do think the asset class will be heading probably to around 10 trillion or so plus or minus a few trillion”
“What I do know is that when you have golden crosses, you get corrections regardless of whether the low is in.”
“I mean, my guess would be it would be between somewhere between 70 and 75k. Uh but if it's not, then there's this analysis is wrong, and there's no reason to put a lot of weight into it.”
OPEN
ETH ▲
“I think there's a decent chance Ethereum will start to pick back up and hopefully do well in going up into 2028, ideally putting in new all-time highs.”
“if history is an indication the market's going to stay weak for a few more months and there's nothing wrong with that”
“i can't begin to tell you you know exactly what week it's going to occur before bitcoin likely heads back down below 60k”
“a 40 drop would put you you know basically sweeping the april 2025 low which is what i've said i think is going to happen”
“But my guess is that history will once again repeat itself and Bitcoin will find itself having a date with Destiny relatively soon. My guess in the middle of June.”
“I would say what's most likely to happen is the Bitcoin tags 70K, bounces back up for a few days and then goes back to the February lows.”
“maybe a local low in June and then another low in October”
“I would still argue there would be a very likely chance that Bitcoin would still at least return back down to 60k sometime later this year”
“I've I've speculated for a while now that the next low would probably be near the end of 2026.”
HIT
BTC ▼ → $60,000
“at least a sweep of the low at at 60 K, I think would be highly probable to happen within the next couple of months or so.”
“Ethereum this year, probably coming up very soon actually, will likely go to the lower part of its regression ban, just like it did at the end of 2019.”
“Look eventually I think it will go to 10 trillion plus or minus a few trillion.”
OPEN
TOTAL ▲
“perhaps in the next cycle we'll see it go back up”
MISS
TOTAL ▶
“And unfortunately it is likely to stay that way for the rest of 2026.”
“My base case would still be that we end up retesting these lows at the very least sometime later this year. You know probably October.”
“we're just going to go back down and retest 60 K.”
“My base case is that Bitcoin finds a lower high boom and then goes down into June. That is my base case.”
“if the low is 60k and we will not durably go below it I would still expect us to retest it sometime later this year probably in the summer or October potentially at the latest”
“I would lean towards Bitcoin going lower as the year goes on even if even if the strength persists for another another week or two that's my guess”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $60,000
“What I think will likely be back to 60K. But I would say the timing on it will likely be within a couple of weeks or so.”
“Currently the lower trend line sits at around one and a half trillion or so and currently we're at around 2.3 trillion. So that would still represent a fairly sizable drop in the market for us to get there.”
“So you guys may remember a few months ago I said that the most likely time for Bitcoin to bottom would in fact be October.”
“so it's hard not to imagine that Bitcoin won't just form a lower high in March”
OPEN
TOTAL ▼
“So with that said, I'd be looking for a low for the asset class sometime later this year. Let's see if this lower regression band comes into play.”
HIT
BTC ▲ → $74,000
“we should see a short-term rally but it is not it's likely not a rally to a durable new all-time high it doesn't mean you can't see Bitcoin go higher right like and you could see it go back above 70k go to 75k who knows how high it will go”
“I would argue that there's a very high chance that this year is a red year.”
“before Bitcoin gets a durable bull market to all time highs, I would say there's pretty good odds that Bitcoin would drop below the realized price, which is currently at 55K and the balanced price is currently at 40K.”
“So that's kind of what I think is the most likely outcome here is to watch for a lower high for Bitcoin to form in March.”
“October, coincidentally, that's when I think Bitcoin is going to bottom potentially October of 2026.”
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