Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy prediction accuracy
—
6 of 10
—
67%
all time, own deadlines (6)
43%
all resolved (28)
53%
30-day direction (15)
96
calls logged
68
open right now
0
flips (30d)
Is Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy accurate?
Not graded recently on Oracle Check (oraclecheck.com): Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy has 6 resolved calls with a deadline they set themselves in the last 12 months, and channels are graded from 10. All time, 4 of 6 such calls hit (67%); they were made between September 2026 and October 2026. 96 calls are logged, 68 still open. 30 days after a directional call, the price had moved the way they said 53% of the time (15 calls).
Current stance
▲ XPL
Nov 2 · open
▼ LIT
Nov 2 · open
▼ PEPE
Nov 2 · open
▲ QNT → $267.00
Nov 2 · open
▲ CC
Oct 31 · open
▼ ALGO
Oct 31 · open
▲ ZEC
Oct 31 · open
▲ BEAM → $0.0069
Oct 31 · open
Is Gerhard - Bitcoin Strategy accurate?
Not graded recently: 6 of 10 resolved calls with a self-set deadline in the last 12 months (28 resolved in total, all time). All time, 4 of 6 calls with their own deadline hit. Calls with a price target: 2 of 2 reached it. Calls without one are judged on direction (a move of 3% or more the stated way, or staying inside a 5% band for a sideways call): 2 of 4 hit. A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 53% of the time (15 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
“So say Plasma grows to 10 billion dollars in stablecoins. At the Tron ratio, that's a market cap of about 3.3 billion. So that's more than 8x from here.”
OPEN
LIT ▼
“the lighter token is currently roughly 30% overvalued. Or it could drop 27% from here. Just to get back to the equilibrium. Neither of those two charts look very bullish in the short term.”
OPEN
PEPE ▼
“Maybe betting on a falling Pepe price could make sense here. Because Pepe dominance potentially could fall by roughly 66% from here in the next months.”
“If Quant were as big as Canton, one QNT would be worth about 267 dollars. That's about a third more than now.”
“So if the fundamentals align right here, maybe 12 months from now, we will have a higher CC price.”
OPEN
ALGO ▼
“I think it makes sense to stay out of Algo. There is potentially an opportunity to even short the asset versus something like Bitcoin.”
“So in the near term, if the positive news keep piling up, ZEC could potentially outperform the rest of the market by more than 70% from here.”
“But now, there isn't that much more upside left. Roughly 50% from here. So, one straightforward way to potentially trade this is to use a trailing stop loss.”
“And if the current negative trend prevails, it could very much fall by another 24% versus the alts.”
“But there is one number that would be the reason to sell. And of course, that's a daily close under $100. If it happens while the funds keep selling, the buyer behind the line is probably gone. Then the long bets on OKEx could turn into sellers as well. And I think this is currently where the momentum is headed, right? We already had the death cross. So a daily close under $100, I believe, could be another trigger.”
“So I think buying Venice here makes sense with January as the time frame.”
“In the short term, just based on the technical analysis, AVEX could underperform the rest of crypto by another 35% before it finds temporary relief.”
OPEN
AERO ▼
“And I am actually considering to short Aerodrome with that chart. I do not have a position open just yet. But a short position seems to be perfect.”
“If the assets keep growing, the $0.49 per dollar of assets tend to move back up. The trigger for that is the RWAXYZ page above $4.5 billion before January. Then the top of the rally at almost 59 cents is probably the next level to look at.”
“And can UNI potentially drop by roughly 60% versus the rest of the altcoin market here? I have to be honest, just based on technical analysis, just looking at this chart, this does not look pretty.”
“If the switch runs on time, and ZEC holds above $1,150 in the days after, that pattern then breaks. Then the top of the run-up at around $1,315 is probably our next stop.”
“But now, without additional buying by Tom Lee, it looks like negative trend continues. And ETH could potentially underperform the rest of crypto by roughly 33% from here.”
OPEN
STRK ▼
“StarkNet could underperform the rest of the altcoin market by almost 60% from here.”
OPEN
BNB ▲
“The supply keeps shrinking by close to 5% per annum, whatever the price does. The chain usage has been growing again since the summer. So, I think it makes sense to buy BNB here.”
OPEN
SKY ▲
“So I think it makes sense to buy Sky here with a time frame of at least 12 months.”
OPEN
PENGU ▼
“So I think it makes sense to stay out of Pengu at least for now.”
OPEN
CAKE ▼
“We could bet on Cake to underperform BNB. So, let's go with BNB USDT forward slash Cake USDT. And that could then be our resulting performance.”
“This trading range is roughly 4 years old. And I think there's a very good case that this will simply stay this way.”
“As long as the days stay that small, the fund alone probably will not break a hundred dollars.”
“If we can, then the potential upside of Injective relative to the rest of the market is up to 660%.”
“If that low breaks, it's very likely not only Bitcoin that goes lower.”
“If we stay within this trend channel though it might take until the beginning of the year. Until we actually hit that low.”
“I think Solana might be worth buying here with a view of a breakpoint in the middle of November. The weak spot is the futures crowd. And Wednesday might turn into a sell the news day. Now how much room is there if the switch goes smoothly and the funds stop selling? Before the fund outflow started at the beginning of October, we were at about $121.”
“Once we break that resistance, then, of course, a trade to the potential final resistance line and then get an additional 60% or so outperformance might be reasonable.”
“If the account starts sending tokens to the wallet that looks like an exchange, then things get problematic. Then it might make sense to really get rid of ICP.”
“So, I think it makes sense to buy HYPE here. I am bullish, at least within a time frame of 12 months or so. I think HYPE has a very high likelihood of outperforming the rest of crypto. Now, how much room is there? Say the market keeps paying 20.5 times and we count the interest money as revenue. Then we would be at roughly 96 dollars per HYPE token.”
“But if that resistance breaks and another secondary short squeeze happens, BAT could potentially outperform by up to 150% if history is any indication.”
“So you just take a data point of one year ago, take the support line over here, and we reach an underperformance of roughly 22% per annum.”
OPEN
SEI ▼
“SAI might get cheap after it falls by another 33% or so versus the rest of the altcoin market.”
“Again, Filecoin would have to outperform by something around 30 to 40 percent, depending on how quickly the appreciation happened.”
“That's why I think it makes sense to buy Link here for the weeks until the next unlock.”
“If a permanent fee share for the stakers is in place by then, I think POL deserves a higher price.”
OPEN
ARB ▲
“Now the next resistance is roughly over here. And that's an outperformance of 150% from here.”
“But if the open interest drops, which is I think quite likely, and then the price also gives the gains backs, then we know this was just the futures traders entering with leverage and then looking at the next token.”
OPEN
LINK ▲ → $14.60
“The best one is 15%. And measured from the Unlock day, that's about $14.60. That's roughly 10% above the current price.”
“If the price stays above 10 cents throughout the unlock, then the bets against it have to be bought back. And then we could see another leg up.”
OPEN
BONK ▲
“The target for the end of this year 115 million dollars of tokens”
“Short term, Japan very likely changes little. The leverage is gone, the volume is low, and we are between $220 and $270 in a trading range.”
OPEN
JUP ▲
“I think it makes sense to buy Jupiter here, at least for the long term.”
“So I think it makes sense to hold TIA into those events. Just to speculate on the breakout.”
“And then if we've got that reference point. Of the prior all-time highs. There might be more upside potential. That's the idea. Low risk versus potentially high reward. That's at least what the technical analysis. I think is pointing towards.”
OPEN
XLM ▲
“So I think it makes sense to simply keep holding XML here and potentially speculate on the breakout from that trading range.”
“Relative to Bitcoin, we might see outperformance as long as that spot buying continues.”
MISS
INJ ▶
“Still without a short squeeze, there's no easy fuel left. So I don't expect much in the next few weeks.”
“But how much higher could Cardano go from here? If ADA goes back to where it was one year ago. That's roughly a 3x.”
“If the queue of sellers stops growing, I think this rally has more room to go higher.”
“Now, if meme coins keep running, this token will very likely follow as well. And the return to the October high of last year would be a 2x from here.”
OPEN
LINK ▲
“I'd rather be a buyer on dips here than bet against the price.”
“The high from Wednesday night is about 11% above us.”
“From June next year there's no vesting unlock left. So every buyback dollar then works against the supply. Without any monthly unlocks. If Atlas goes live. And if the keys keep climbing. I think $2.40 is a realistic first target.”
“Still, I think it makes sense to hold SDX here and potentially accumulate on dips.”
OPEN
NIGHT ▲
“I am bullish on Midnight from here, with a bit of patience though. I don't think we have to chase this rally after the last 7 days.”
OPEN
SAND ▼
“I personally have a vested interest in the sand price going down from here. Because I'm also betting on falling prices.”
“If the weekly inflows pick back up, Sunday's high is about 18% from here.”
“If we were to go back to that equilibrium price, TIX could underperform the rest of the alts in the short term by roughly 27%.”
OPEN
MON ▼
“I think it makes sense to rather wait for potential weakness at that unlocked cliff than buying every single dip here.”
“A pullback of 10-20% after a month like this is very normal even without any leverage buildup.”
“If the price simply returns to where it started this year, at around $1.44, that's roughly 25% from here. And 12 months ago, the token traded at $3.26, that's almost a 3x from the current level.”
“Either one of those two could turn this drop into a potential entry opportunity.”
“And a pullback of 20% or more would not surprise me at all.”
HIT
GRASS ▼
“when we see a short squeeze like this, we tend to see at least part of that rally giving back, at least over the next few weeks.”
“So if those trend channel lines hold, we've got a potential upside for Aave of more than 100% versus the rest of the altcoin market. Aave could potentially outperform by 2x.”
“So I am still bullish on Sui. I think the bigger risk here is just a small pullback, not necessarily the end of this trend.”
“If both of those happen, then the 23 cents of last October might actually not be that far away.”
“Short term, I'm still cautiously bullish on Hedera from here.”
“If the ETF streaks holds and Evernor lists cleanly, that's potentially fuel for an appreciation here. Wednesday could be the first step towards potentially back to $2.54.”
OPEN
QNT ▲ → $427.00
“Back to the all-time high of $427 would be almost 50% from here as well.”
“So I don't think it makes sense to chase this rally after this 17% date. It's probably best to wait for at least part of this to come back down.”
“If the ETFs keep buying at even half of this week's pace, I think that first level is realistic before the end of the year. So $96,700 is the level I think Bitcoin can run to from here.”
“Now, what's the upside? The all-time high of Ethereum is about $4,946 in August of last year. From the current price, that's roughly 84% higher.”
“Now what's the upside? Exactly one year ago, Link was trading at about $21. That's the price level I think is realistic if the bank deals start paying. So from here, that's roughly 63% more.”
“If the platform hits $3B, the math points to a token price of $82.”
“I think holding QNT might make sense here if the bull market of course continues.”
“If the spot buyers stay and Bitcoin holds its ground, the next level is quite simple. Axie Infinity is valued at about 190 million. If IMX goes back to that level, that's roughly 42% from here.”
“If both of those happen, I think the old high from October of last year could come back into view. That's around 126 dollars, so about 75% from here.”
“if the stock platform hits its target, we are looking at about 5.5 billion of total assets instead of 3.5 billion. At the current ratio of market cap to assets, that's a token price of roughly 82 cents.”
“If we were to go back to that long term equilibrium, then ondo could outperform from here by another roughly 32%.”
“And the fees of Robinhood don't suddenly collapse. That would make me quite bullish.”
“normal. Still I don't think this rally is over. The main question is can we actually break this resistance? Uni just has to go in line with Bitcoin for a while. It doesn't even have to outperform that much as long as it stays at an elevated level. And the fees of Robinhood don't suddenly collapse. That would make me quite bullish. Now the all-time high of the Uni token is at $45.”
“If world money doubles that to 36 million at the same value per human, that's roughly $3 billion. Even after one more year of unlocks, that's about 63 cents per token.”
“I don't think it makes sense to chase that. Moves like this tend to give back a good part first.”
“BitTensor is at a market cap of about $3.5 billion. So getting there would be a bit more than a 2x from here for Venice.”
“If we buy now and hold Bitcoin over the next three, four years, we're probably going to be up.”
“I think FET is a reasonable catch-up bet on the AI sector at this current price.”
“In a rising market, I think Pepe stays a top mover.”
“And if you were to get some positive news around Dogecoin again. The potential upside is roughly 200% versus Bitcoin.”
“If we are out of the bear market and Bitcoin hits new all-time highs, there's a very good chance that Solana will also continue to outperform BTC.”
“I do think that occasional short squeezes of 100% or 200% are very much possible with Luna Classic.”
“If we were to go back to that equilibrium ratio, FF could come down by roughly 20% from here.”
“Now, could Zcash go lower first? It very likely can with that much market cap in open bets.”
“If the Korean rails go live in February and the trading volume moves onto the public chain, the feline could change. That would be the first time a real securities market would actually settle every single day on the chain.”
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