On-Chain Mind prediction accuracy
—
5 of 10
—
0%
all time, own deadlines (6)
23%
all resolved (30)
38%
30-day direction (21)
38
calls logged
8
open right now
0
flips (30d)
Is On-Chain Mind accurate?
Not graded recently on Oracle Check (oraclecheck.com): On-Chain Mind has 5 resolved calls with a deadline they set themselves in the last 12 months, and channels are graded from 10. All time, 0 of 6 such calls hit (0%); they were made between July 2025 and August 2026. 38 calls are logged, 8 still open. 30 days after a directional call, the price had moved the way they said 38% of the time (21 calls).
Current stance
▲ BTC → $100,000
Oct 13 · open
Is On-Chain Mind accurate?
Not graded recently: 5 of 10 resolved calls with a self-set deadline in the last 12 months (30 resolved in total, all time). All time, 0 of 6 calls with their own deadline hit. Calls with a price target: 0 of 2 reached it. Calls without one are judged on direction (a move of 3% or more the stated way, or staying inside a 5% band for a sideways call): 0 of 4 hit. A month after each directional call, the price had moved the way they said 38% of the time (21 calls). Every call below is quoted, dated and priced.
The record
“once AI becomes a little bit more boring and Bitcoin's ripping, you know, past a hundred K again, you can bet your bottom dollar that miners can be plugging back in”
“A short-term move back toward the mean wouldn’t be a bad thing, just normal mean reversion after the recent push.”
“my base case certainly remains that we're more likely in a bull market than not.”
“Bitcoin is testing the 0.382 Fib. Break it, and $92K is next.”
“So for me, the overall trend is definitely still bullish until proven otherwise and invalidated.”
MISS
BTC ▼ → $62,000
“And what we can see is that the median outcome that is expected given these echoes, is actually a 3.1% decline in price over the next three weeks, or roughly bringing us to $62,000.”
“But if we start to see an extended period where the hash ribbons genuinely aren't printing anymore, then that is a really good sign that the network health is finally coming back again.”
“in September of 2029, it would put a potential peak at $370,000, which might sound optimistic, but that's only a 500 ish percent return.”
“So although the downside trend is absolutely real, and I do believe there's probably more weakness to come.”
“The key now is whether Bitcoin can hold this $78,000 to $79,000 zone as support. And if it can, then this starts to look less like a bear market rally and more like the early stage of a proper recovery.”
“Prices rallied again, sure, but it wouldn't be unusual to see it roll over again and test lower levels.”
“And based on everything that we've seen historically, the most probable path from here is not continued collapse, it's consolidation.”
“I think we've got one or two more flushes ahead of us.”
“So when people ask whether a $50,000 floor is realistic, the answer is yes, absolutely. And the data really supports it.”
“Price may drop another $5,000, $10,000, or even $15,000.”
“The first scenario is that we experience a 100-day style capitulation event. And if that's the case, then in roughly another 15 days, or about two weeks, we'd expect the market to begin rallying again. And”
“I'm still constructive on Bitcoin heading into next year”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,200,000
“with the bear case still coming in at around $1.2 million.”
OPEN
BTC ▲ → $1,400,000
“And extend that out to 2035, and the base case puts Bitcoin at around $1.4 million,”
“And under an extreme bear case, it's still roughly $330,000.”
“Under the base case scenario, the fair value for Bitcoin in 2030 is around $400,000.”
“But we're not there yet. We're holding it. And until that changes, the optimistic interpretation still stands.”
“However there is one scenario where I could see price dropping towards these mid $60,000 levels.”
“I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin push towards the upper half of the trading channel, testing that $93,000 level, and potentially moving beyond that if buying continues steadily.”
“And that true market mean is sitting around $81,000 at the moment. So if we do get some months of choppy, frustrating range bound price action, that's the area I'd expect us to keep gravitating towards”
“If $126,000 was the top, and I'm not definitely saying it was, but if that was the cycle peak and we slowly bled out from here, then the most extreme deviation target to the downside is $60,000.”
“And if that happens, my first primary target is the top of the 2024 consolidation phase, which lines up beautifully with the lower short-term holder cost band at around $72,000.”
“Yeah, I definitely think it could explode to the surprise a lot of people.”
“I'm now stacking cash in anticipation of a potential breakdown to $95,000.”
“I don't think the current 75% long-term holder supply level marks the peak of this cycle. In my view, it seems way too early”
“see claimed is the orange cost band, which begins at around $141,000. And that's where the next meaningful test for the bulls lies. If price can establish above that region, it would signal short-term holders are once again in profit territory. And that's historically where momentum tends to build rapidly. And honestly, I don't think it will take as long as most people think to reach that zone.”
“the peak is likely to occur around the $211,000 mark.”
“Combining this with other fundamental indicators tells us that while caution is always warranted, there's still room for growth before the next major price peak.”
MISS
ETH ▼
“My bet is that this rally will lose some steam in the coming weeks, but when that happens is anyone's guess.”
“if we do get another euphoric price surge like we saw last year, the upper red region extends all the way to around $190,000, where a correction is pretty much almost inevitable”
“The upper boundary of this yellow band runs to about $131,000. We've seen price tap above this since the orange band multiple times already this cycle, so I wouldn't be surprised if we revisited it again, though”
“That suggests to me that we've still got plenty of room to run and the true peak likely hasn't occurred yet.”
MISS
BTC ▲
“So with this current green histogram print, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the next six months.”
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