State of crypto predictions — April 2023
Final numbers for the month. 58 calls from tracked channels reached their
deadline: 27 hit (47%) , 26 missed, 5 stopped out. 43 new calls were logged
by 15 channels (33 bullish, 9 bearish).
Hit rate by coin BTC: 17 of 31 hit 55% BTC ETH: 4 of 8 hit 50% ETH SOL: 1 of 3 hit 33% SOL ADA: 2 of 2 hit 100% ADA ICP: 0 of 2 hit 0% ICP DOT: 0 of 2 hit 0% DOT IMX: 0 of 1 hit 0% IMX APT: 0 of 1 hit 0% APT Coin Resolved Hit Hit rate BTC 31 17 55% ETH 8 4 50% SOL 3 1 33% ADA 2 2 100% ICP 2 0 0% DOT 2 0 0% IMX 1 0 0% APT 1 0 0%
Hit rate by horizon ≤7d: 0 of 2 hit 0% ≤7d 8–30d: 5 of 11 hit 45% 8–30d 31–90d: 18 of 37 hit 49% 31–90d 91–365d: 3 of 7 hit 43% 91–365d >1y: 1 of 1 hit 100% >1y Horizon Resolved Hit Hit rate ≤7d 2 0 0% 8–30d 11 5 45% 31–90d 37 18 49% 91–365d 7 3 43% >1y 1 1 100%
Verdicts per day Apr 1: 1 verdicts 1 1 Apr 2: 1 verdicts 1 2 Apr 3: 3 verdicts 3 3 Apr 4: 1 verdicts 1 4 Apr 5: 1 verdicts 1 5 Apr 8: 1 verdicts 1 8 Apr 9: 2 verdicts 2 9 Apr 10: 2 verdicts 2 10 Apr 11: 12 verdicts 12 11 Apr 12: 2 verdicts 2 12 Apr 13: 3 verdicts 3 13 Apr 14: 4 verdicts 4 14 Apr 16: 2 verdicts 2 16 Apr 17: 2 verdicts 2 17 Apr 18: 1 verdicts 1 18 Apr 19: 2 verdicts 2 19 Apr 21: 1 verdicts 1 21 Apr 22: 2 verdicts 2 22 Apr 24: 1 verdicts 1 24 Apr 26: 2 verdicts 2 26 Apr 27: 3 verdicts 3 27 Apr 28: 4 verdicts 4 28 Apr 29: 2 verdicts 2 29 Apr 30: 3 verdicts 3 30
Channels this month · at least 5 verdicts
Biggest hit Trader 80/20 ·
BTC ▲ → $30,000
· said Dec 28 · deadline Dec 28 · +81.3% “30 thousand dollars is the first target for riskon”
Biggest miss
“but in the long term it's going to recover is is my thesis and the model tends to agree with that fact”
What was called Coin New calls BTC 18 ETH 8 XRP 3 ADA 2 AVAX 2 ATOM 2
Every call is transcribed from a public video with a timestamp and checked against exchange data
(Binance/Bybit daily candles). Accuracy = share of resolved calls that hit. Nothing here is financial advice.
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